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Betting the 2013 Australian Open

Will the Australian Open see a repeat final Djokovic vs Federer? Or will the tournament, as so often before, have a surprise for us all?

Personally, if I had to pick a player likely to win this years Aussie Open, I'd go for Djokovic. He obviously likes this surface, and his last years performance was outstanding. Nadal with his history of injuries will probably need some time to come back and be at the top of his game. With the current ranking, we might see a semi-final between Rafa and Roger, although I am not sure both will make it to the semis.

Update: Nadal has already withdrawn his participation, which makes Ferrer the 4th seed now (unless Djokovic, Federer or Murray will not play either). So if the top seeds go through, the semis would see Djokovic vs Ferrer and Federer vs Murray.

With the Aussie Open, there is always a good chance that an underdog might make it to the semis, or even the final. The thing about the Aussie Open is that a lot depends on how a player goes through a tournament. Playing conditions can be brutal, and if you have tough matches in the early rounds, it is very difficult to keep up the pace later on.

I would not spend any money betting an outright winner early on here. Take a look at the draw, bet some first round or second round matches and take a look at player performances. If a player like Tsonga has easy first and second round wins, he may be a candidate to reach the semis or the final, and you would still be getting excellent odds for betting him as the Australian Open winner. 

If I had to give a pick for an outright winner today, I'd go for Murray - at 888 you would get 3,0 odds right now (2/1 or +200, depending on your preferred odds format).

Here are my picks for the Men's event at the Australian Open 2013

First off, the players who qualified - usually with great odds if you pick the right one to win the first round:

  • Bogomolov winning vs Baker, with 2,5 odds at 888 - a very good bet
  • Brands to win vs Klizan, with 1,83 - I'd even go so far as to go for a 3:0 result here which would give you 4,5
  • Reister to beat Rufin, 1,53 odds
  • Bemelmans winning vs Roger-Vasselin, 1,72 at 888

Now for the best picks of the other first round pairings:

The absolute best pick here would undoubtedly be Monfils to beat Dolgopolov. Monfils did great in the Auckland ATP, and you get 2,25 odds for him. Don't miss this one!

  • Kamke to win vs Cipolla, odds not too high (1,36), but a pretty safe bet
  • Hewitt winning vs Tipsarevic, at 2,25
  • Haas to beat Nieminen, 1,33